Lakeland Real Estate – What Polk County’s Real Estate Future Holds

statistics_iclipartLakeland Real Estate – The National Association of Realtors® reported that existing home sales declined 12.2% in March 2009, the Florida Association of Realtors® reports an increase of 30% or 13,085 existing homes sold from the year prior.

The median sales prices continued to slide for March from the previous year for existing homes on the national level to $175,200 (12.4%), state wide to $141,300 (30%), and Polk County to $99,900 (35%). Below are some other counties with their median home sold prices for March 2009 for you to compare.

  • Brevard County – $137,500
  • Hillsborough County – $143,000
  • Pasco County – $111,550
  • Osceola County – $119,900
  • Pinellas County – $135,900
  • Orange County – $137,100

Polk County home sales were up as it shows in Lakeland, Florida according to the Mid-Florida Multiple Listing Service (MLS), 571 existing homes were sold in Polk County – an increase in sales of 21.37% from the previous year and 22% from the previous month.

While working as a Lakeland Realtor® the predominant question I’m asked by sellers, buyers, and people on the streets is “When will the housing market rebound?” Well, I’m not an economist and surely, no one really knows and if you ask three economists right now, you more than likely will get three different answers. I am, however, realistic and honest about when I’m asked this question, when I say that the Real Estate Market will not change all that much during the course of this year or even next year.

While I do know that the housing market is very local in each state, each city and in some areas each neighborhood, let me break it down even further for you. I’m sure you’d like to know how your city is performing in Polk County, Florida

City                                        Average Sold Price          Median Sold Price           # of Homes Sold

AUBURNDALE

109,324

110,000

21

BABSON PARK

155,000

195,000

3

BARTOW

114,182

73,100

13

CLERMONT

48,000

48,000

1

DAVENPORT

142,037

131,100

104

DUNDEE

105,500

105,500

2

EAGLE LAKE

144,200

144,200

1

FORT MEADE

31,500

31,500

2

FROSTPROOF

79,781

72,250

8

HAINES CITY

108,025

102,900

27

INDIAN LAKE ESTATES

77,500

62,500

4

KISSIMMEE

78,426

61,000

26

LAKE ALFRED

104,429

115,000

7

LAKE HAMILTON

181,168

181,168

2

LAKE WALES

90,448

72,500

23

LAKELAND

135,632

123,500

155

LAKESHORE

27,000

27,000

1

MULBERRY

110,513

115,250

18

POINCIANA

81,931

71,500

73

POLK CITY

124,688

129,000

8

WINTER HAVEN

98,157

87,250

72

While there is definitely a great time to buy, is there also a good time to sell?

The housing bubble of 2005 here in Polk County and its surrounding cities, such as Lakeland, Florida was manifested by increased home values we’ve never seen before, as much as 10%, 20% even 25% and these values were not maintainable in other areas as well much like around the country. Homeowners have expressed that they would rather wait until the market comes back – Interesting, how long are they going to wait?

The fact of the matter is that values have dropped considerable since the housing boom of 2005; depending in what town you live in. Have we reached bottom? Anybody could speculate at this time, but it seems to me that sellers are worried about their lost equity, their unwillingness to part with the lost equity in their current home, although they would buy another home under these same conditions.

Let’s look at another way to rationalize the Real Estate market and what kind of appreciation is necessary to get back to where we were at the market peak is to look at stocks.

For example, you purchase a stock for $100 dollars and it loses value by 25%. The stock is now worth $75 dollars. Many would incorrectly assume that if the stock goes back up by 25% it would be worth $100 again. WRONG – it would be worth $93.75. The stock needs to appreciate around 33.5% just to get back to break even! It works the same way with housing folks but on a larger scale.

If you owned a home worth $300,000 in 2005 and it has dropped by 25% it is now worth $225,000. Well guess what if the market goes up 25% the home will be worth $281,250. Still some way off from $300,000!

In a more healthy and stabilized market, economists predict that once we do finally hit bottom we will only see a more historical adjustment of 2-3% yearly appreciation on our homes. The slower the rebound, the healthier the Real Estate Market will be in the future. It will take some time to get to the levels prior to the market correction.

Wanting to sell your home should not be based on lost equity you once had on paper, if you really want to move.

Interest rates are at an all time low and this will not last forever.   While it may take years before we get back to the levels of 2005, what are the chances interest rates will be as low as they are today? Remember, as your home appreciates, other Lakeland real estate values will do the same.

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